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Scrutinising the wholesale price impact of assisted closure of brown coal power stations

This briefing prepared by Frontier Economics examines a proposal recently developed by academic Frank Jotzo and consultant, Salim Mazouz, which actively encourages the exit of high-emission brown coal generators in the National Electricity Market (NEM).

The briefing examines their proposal and in particular, focuses on a key assertion by the authors that there will be a “..(small) electricity price impact..” on low income households from their scheme and that “The electricity price increase would also affect business, though again the magnitudes would likely be very small”.

We observe that a number of high-emission, low-value thermal plants have already closed in recent years without intervention and consider these assertions about low price impacts in more detail in the briefing.DOWNLOAD FULL PUBLICATION

International Clinical Trials Day is celebrated around the world on or near May 20 each year. It celebrates the day that James Lind started what is often considered the first randomized clinical trial aboard a ship in 1747. He wanted to see whether his belief that the introduction of acids might cure scurvy was correct, and chose 12 men to test 6 different daily treatments.

Frontier (Australia) alumni and former director, David Briggs, has Multiple Myeloma, an incurable but treatable cancer. He has taken part in four clinical trials and discusses this in an interview and video that promotes the importance of these trials and encourages those who can to consider participating in them.   At Frontier Economics, we fully support the notion of testing hypotheses and working with empirical evidence. Happy International Clinical Trials Day!

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PanAust today announced it had completed the feasibility study on the Frieda River copper and gold project in Papua New Guinea. The project is owned 80% by PanAust and 20% by Highlands Pacific. Highlands Pacific also made an announcement to the Australian Securities Exchange.

The completion of the feasibility study represents an intermediate step towards development of one of the world’s largest copper and gold deposits. The resource is estimated to contain 12 million tonnes of copper and 19 million ounces of gold.

PanAust envisages a multi-stage development that involves an initial project stage that forms the platform for subsequent phases of exploration, Mineral Resource definition and development. There are pathways to expand production rates and extend the mine life.

Frontier (Australia) assisted PanAust in preparation of the feasibility study, and regularly advises clients in the resources sector.

For more information, please contact Marita O’Keeffe at m.okeeffe@frontier-economics.com.au or phone +61 3 9620 4488.

Why Retrospective Action Undermines Incentive Regulation

A recent judgment by the Australian Competition Tribunal leaves it open to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) to consider whether it would be in the long-term interests of consumers of electricity for it to make adjustments to the revenues that networks may earn in future to account for supposed windfall gains in the past. This bulletin from Frontier (Australia) explains why the long-term interests of consumers would be served best by preserving the incentives that networks face to pursue efficiencies, and by restraint on the AER’s part.

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The Essential Services Commission (ESC) today released its draft report on the regulation of maximum taxi fares in Victoria.

In its draft report, the ESC describes the changing nature of the commercial passenger vehicle services market, with taxis facing increasing competition from alternative service providers. Although no change to the overall level of fares is proposed, the ESC has sought to increase the flexibility of fares at peak times so that providers may better respond to competitors offering a higher-priced, higher quality service.

The report also reveals the impact that entry of other point-to-point service providers, such as Uber, are having on the demand for taxi services. Data from the first half of 2015 indicates a significant and accelerating decline in the number of metropolitan taxi trips – a four per cent year on year decline in the January to March quarter, followed by a 9 per cent year on year decline in the April to June quarter.

Frontier (Australia) assisted the ESC in preparation of the report, and regularly advises clients in the transport sector.

For more information, please contact Marita O’Keeffe at m.okeeffe@frontier-economics.com.au or phone +61 3 9620 4488.

 

Frontier (Australia) has published a new briefing, Sudden impact: scrutinising the wholesale price impact of assisted closure of brown coal power stations.  This briefing examines a proposal recently developed by academic Frank Jotzo and consultant Salim Mazouz, which actively encourages the exit of high-emission brown coal generators in the National Electricity Market (NEM).

The briefing examines their proposal and in particular, focuses on a key assertion by the authors that there will be a “..(small) electricity price impact..” on low income households from their scheme and that “The electricity price increase would also affect business, though again the magnitudes would likely be very small”.

We observe that a number of high-emission, low-value thermal plants have already closed in recent years without intervention and consider these assertions about low price impacts in more detail in the briefing.

Frontier (Australia) regularly advises clients on issues in the energy sector and undertakes economic modelling of various scenarios in the NEM.

For more information, please contact Marita O’Keeffe on m.okeeffe@frontier-economics.com.au or phone +61 3 9620 4488.

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