The energy transition’s leading co-optimal energy modelling tool

Leveraging 20+ years of energy sector modelling experience, Energy42 helps make complex investment decisions across Electricity, Gas and Hydrogen sectors. By optimising simultaneously across these sectors, rather than sequentially, Energy42 provides a powerful tool to model the real-time interactions between electricity, gas and hydrogen production and storages. It can model scenarios to find the optimal investment outputs, revenues and prices – results which can then be used to inform future policy and investment decisions.

Why use Energy42?

Below are a few recent examples of Energy42 in real world case studies.

Economic analysis of pathways to net zero emissions for Australia’s gas network

DCCEEW (Australian Government) engaged Frontier Economics to carry out market modelling, using Energy42, to model long-term investment and operation in these 3 sectors under a range of different scenarios relating to decarbonisation of gas distribution networks. The model assessed the supply side response in the natural gas, hydrogen and electricity sectors to meet forecast demand for natural gas, H2, biomethane and electricity under a range of scenarios for the transition to net zero by 2050. Based on the market modelling results we assessed the total cost of conversion under each scenario, accounting for costs along the supply chain. Finally, we forecast bill impacts for customers, having regard to each of the main components of retail bills – network costs and wholesale energy costs.

Procurement options for The Office for Hydrogen Power South Australia (OHPSA)

OHPSA engaged Frontier Economics to model energy market outcomes, including operation, costs and revenues, for its H2 production facility (electrolyser), H2 power station and H2 storage assets for the FY26 to FY51 period under different future states of the world. The project includes calculating cashflow implications for the owner of the assets of various options for procuring electricity supply, for supplying H2 offtake (from the H2 production facility) and for supplying electricity firming products (from the hydrogen power station) as well as calculating the effect on expected return and on risk for the assets of each individual contractual option.

New South Wales Hydrogen Infrastructure Masterplan

Australia’s New South Wales (NSW) Office of Energy and Climate Change was responsible for delivering the Hydrogen Infrastructure Masterplan, to guide industry and government on planning and investment decisions relating to hydrogen supply chains in NSW. Frontier Economics undertook the demand and supply analysis of hydrogen in NSW to support the OECC in the delivery of the masterplan. Frontier Economics developed forecasts of hydrogen demand in NSW, identifying demand for different end uses (including transport, industrial use, generation and export) and for a variety of regional areas within NSW. We also identified the employment opportunities from the development of the hydrogen sector in NSW.

New South Wales Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap modelling

Frontier Economics was engaged by AGL to analyse the impact of the NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap that was passed into Australian law in December 2020. We used our electricity market models to evaluate the additional renewable and storage investment supported by the Roadmap and how this contributed to the early retirement of coal-fired generators. The study assessed impacts on investment, retirement, dispatch, security, and wholesale and retail prices.

Electricity and gas consumption trends and forecasts in the Australian Capital Territory to 2030

Frontier Economics was engaged by the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) government to analyse historical trends of electricity and gas consumption in the ACT and develop forecasts for 2019-2030. As part of this engagement, Frontier Economics undertook the following tasks: weather normalise consumption, adjustments of data for solar PV, energy efficiencies, electric vehicles, and embedded generators; estimation of price effect and income effect; estimation of greenhouse gas emissions. The results of the analysis were provided in a report to the ACT government (2019-2020).

South Australia’s Energy Plan

Frontier Economics has worked closely with the Government of South Australia as it has determined and implemented its response to the blackout of 2016. Frontier’s role in the Government’s Energy Plan includes ongoing advice on policy and strategy, procurement, commercial arrangements, and negotiation to support implementation of:

1. 1. 100MW/129MWh utility scale Tesla battery (the world’s largest), which provides load balancing and frequency control ancillary services
   2. 150MW Aurora solar thermal plant with molten salt storage to provide dispatchable renewable energy
   3. 276MW emergency (backup) aero-derivative generators
   4. an $800m, 250MW/675MWh Virtual Power Plant (VPP, the world’s largest), made up of 50,000 systems of 5kWs solar PV and 13.5kWh Tesla Powerwalls, which will be installed predominantly on Government public housing stock and run as a single behind the meter power plant
   5. a separate Home Battery Scheme, reflecting $100m in residential battery subsidies to support an additional 40,000 household storage systems.

This work has involved stakeholder engagement, advising the Government at the highest level, and negotiation on behalf of the State.