Daniel Picone

Daniel is an economist at Frontier Economics working in the energy markets team. His experience is in applying economics to transmission planning, cost-benefit analysis, resilience planning, government policy, regulatory strategy and economic regulation. He advises on the economics of the energy sector across electricity, gas and hydrogen, spanning regulation, investment, planning and government policy. Daniel’s clients include governments, regulators, system planning bodies, developers and retailers across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore.

His expertise is in drawing together large, complex energy datasets and turning model outputs into clear, well-structured results that clients and stakeholders can rely on. He uses economic market models, including Frontier Economics’ own suite of energy models and data tools, such as our proprietary energy42 model, to help clients make informed decisions.

Daniel has significant experience applying these tools to support client decisions, using techniques such as optimisation, econometrics, statistics, Monte-Carlo analysis and game-theoretic modelling. His work is strongly grounded in mathematics, statistics and economics, with a range of programming and visualisation tools at his disposal, including advanced Excel, R and Python.

Energy market modelling

Daniel has worked on key Australian energy market issues since 2018. This includes lead roles across a range of matters, such as:

• Advising energy generators on large investment decisions under uncertainty, including scenario analysis and multiple weather reference year market modelling
• Providing advice to the South Australian government on the development of a hydrogen-powered gas turbine, including modelling the cost of the asset, future revenues, and price impacts for South Australian consumers
• Analysing the economic impact to the National Energy Market (NEM) of closing a coal-fired generator earlier than anticipated. Scenario analysis was used to understand price and emissions impacts
• Assisting WaterNSW in their submission to the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) on the wholesale electricity costs of pumping water for the Broken Hill pipeline

Energy market analysis

He has also advised a range of clients on other energy-related matters, including:

• Providing consumption and demand forecasts for Essential Energy for use in their pricing model, and cost forecasts for their regulatory submission to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER)
• Advising the Essential Services Commission on the wholesale cost of energy for use in the Victorian Default Offer and the Minimum Feed Tariff
• Developing a financial model for an energy retailer seeking to enter the NEM, including assessing forecasts of consumer numbers, consumption and energy generation
• Advising clients on the value of gas-powered generation in the NEM, and the associated supply conditions that must be overcome to enable these investments

Other economic regulation and analysis

Alongside his energy work, Daniel has advised clients on matters including:

• Reviewing Transport for NSW’s pricing models for IPART, including the long-run marginal cost calculations used in determining efficient pricing
• Advising Hunter Water on the Lower Hunter Water Security Plan, identifying the optimal portfolio and pathway of water supply in the Lower Hunter through cost-benefit and scenario analysis
• Developing a building block model for the Infocomm Media Development Authority for additional cable landing stations into Singapore
• Analysing willingness to pay for investments to improve water and wastewater service quality, and for digital metering, for Icon Water’s regulatory proposal

Daniel holds a Bachelor of Advanced Science (Applied Mathematics) with First Class Honours and a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance), from the University of New South Wales.

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